Trulia: How Your Blue Politics Is Increasing Your Home Value

Trulia’s election day index says that home prices are soaring where voters chose blue.

The NYSE-traded online real estate sales and leasing site released its latest price and rent monitors listed on the site through Oct. 31. 

 “Home prices are skyrocketing in many of America’s bluest metros, like Oakland and Detroit," the report says, adding, "The home-price rebound has bypassed most of America’s reddest metros.”

The report says that the “uneven housing and economic recoveries in America across red and blue metros could aggravate political partisanship.”

Locally, the NYC-area increases are smaller at 7.3% price than other blue markets, even though the NYC lean toward Democrat voting is near the top of the markets Trulia surveyed.  Increases were led by Oakland at nearly 30%, andDetroit near 25%.

Trulia’s explanation:

[T]he stronger price recovery in blue metros is actually a bigger rebound after a steeper decline. That’s because blue metros were harder hit during the housing crash and now also face higher unemployment and lower housing affordability than red metros.

Increases in asking prices slowed. The 0.6 percent "month-over-month" increase was the second-slowest monthly gain in seven months. The report attributes the slowdown to “expanding inventory, rising mortgage rates, and declining investor activity.”

It projects further slowing “if consumer confidence suffers from the ongoing budget uncertainty and future shutdown and debt-default worries.”

But monthly, quarterly, and yearly gains “are all still high compared with historical norms.”

From the press release:

Home prices are skyrocketing in many of America’s bluest metros, like Oakland and Detroit. The home-price rebound has bypassed most of America’s reddest metros,” said Jed Kolko, Trulia’s Chief Economist. “But Red America shouldn’t turn green with envy at Blue America’s recovery: housing remains much more affordable in red metros than blue metros, and unemployment is lower, too.

Here’s the survey results (check the link below for the specific methodology):

 

October 2013 Trulia Price Monitor Summary

    % change in asking prices   # of 100 largest metros with asking-price increases  

% change in asking prices, excluding foreclosures

Month-over-month,
seasonally adjusted
  0.6%   Not reported   0.1%
Quarter-over-quarter,
seasonally adjusted
  3.1%   91   2.6%
Year-over-year   11.7%   99   11.8%

*Month-over-month change is October versus September. Quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year changes are three-month averages. Data from previous months are revised each month, so data being reported now for previous months might differ from previously reported data.

 
Price Changes in the Reddest Metros
#   Metro   President Obama’s margin in 2012 election   Y-o-Y % change in asking prices, Oct 2013

1

 

Knoxville, TN

  -34%   2.2%
2  

Tulsa, OK

  -32%   4.3%
3  

Greenville, SC

  -30%   9.5%
4  

Oklahoma City, OK

  -27%   4.1%
5  

Fort Worth, TX

  -23%   12.0%
Note: A negative margin for Obama means Romney got more votes than Obama. Among 100 largest metros.
 
 
Price Changes in the Bluest Metros
#   Metro   President Obama’s margin in 2012 election   Y-o-Y % change in asking prices, Oct 2013
1  

San Francisco, CA

  58%   15.6%
2  

Oakland, CA

  50%   29.6%
3  

New York, NY-NJ

  49%   7.3%
4  

Detroit, MI

  47%   24.5%
5  

San Jose, CA

  42%   19.1%

Note: A positive margin for Obama means Obama got more votes than Romney. Among 100 largest metros.

Meantime, rental prices were mixed.  The survey reports that rents rose 2.7 percent--most in San Francisco, Portland, and Seattle, while falling “slightly” in Washington D.C. and Philadelphia.

San Francisco’s increase was steepest, and city’s median rent of $3,250 for a two-bedroom unit is now higher than New York, where the current median is $3,150 per month. Want to move?  Go to Phoenix, St. Louis, or Las Vegas, where the median rent for a two-bedroom unit is less than $1,000>

Here is Trulia's rent report.


Rent Trends In the Most Expensive Rental Markets
#   U.S. Metro   Y-o-Y % change, October 2013   Median rent on 2-bedroom units
1  

San Francisco, CA

  10.1%   $3,250
2  

New York, NY-NJ

  2.8%   $3,150
3  

Boston, MA

  2.2%   $2,300
4  

Los Angeles, CA

  2.7%   $2,250
5  

Oakland, CA

  2.0%   $2,250

NOTE: Among 25 largest rental markets.

 

The full Trulia report can be viewed here.

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