- Posted at 10:54, November 11, 2013
- By Russ Bleemer
What, us worry? The broker community just said yes.
The quarterly Real Estate Board of New York’s overall Real Estate Broker Confidence Index dropped in the third quarter report released today, to 8.75, from 8.89 in 2013’s second quarter.
While the Commercial Market Confidence Index rose to 9.18 in the third quarter, from 9.08 in the second quarter, the Residential Market Confidence Index fell the most of the three, to 8.33, from 8.71, in the same periods.
There may be some concern now, but survey respondents are worried about the future across the board. The three indices all dropped in the third quarter, from second quarter levels, when the brokers were asked about the markets six months down the road.
The concern, according to REBNY, is that high-end development is occupying builders’ and investors’ time to the point that its inhibiting new inventory creation for middle class renters and buyers, according to the report.
But brokers' bigger problem, the study says, is Washington, D.C., gridlock, including aftereffects of the recent shutdown and the debt ceiling. And the prospects of it recurring.
Steven Spinola, REBNY president, said in a statement that commercial and residential demand is strong and that financing continues to recover from the downturn. But he added that “there are political headwinds like another government standstill that could disrupt market confidence especially if it triggers a sudden and rapid rise in short-term interest rates.”
The confidence indices reflect brokers’ responses to a survey of eight questions for each of the commercial and residential businesses.
Neither the survey data in the report—which includes the questions and historical results—nor the REBNY press release say how many responses the REBNY based its results upon. But a Crain’s New York Business article this afternoon said that 350 responses were tallied.
The Real Estate Board of New York is the city’s leading real estate trade association with more
than 14,000 members.